If Nigeria’s economy were a long-running TV series, Governor Olayemi Cardoso just walked on stage at the 60th Chartered Institute Bankers Dinner (CIBN) and announced: “Guys, the plot has finally turned.” And for once, it’s not a cliffhanger.

Speaking in Lagos, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor declared that Nigeria has “turned a decisive corner” on its economic reform journey. Translation? Inflation is cooling off, the forex market has stopped behaving like a rollercoaster, and investors are slowly but surely sliding back into our DMs.

Let’s start with inflation; everyone’s favourite dinner-table complaint. According to Cardoso, headline inflation has dropped sharply from a stomach-churning 34.6% in November 2024 to a far calmer 16.05% by October 2025. That’s seven straight months of disinflation, one of the strongest price-stability improvements Nigeria has seen in decades. Even food inflation, which has been terrorising wallets, has eased to 13.12% from about 22% earlier in the year. The CBN, he says, isn’t resting yet; the goal is still single digits, and policy tools will keep adjusting until prices fully behave themselves.

Now to forex; formerly known as ‘Nigeria’s most dramatic market’, Cardoso confirmed that the CBN has cleared the infamous FX backlog inherited by the administration, estimated at over $7 billion. Airlines, manufacturers and foreign investors can now breathe again. Thanks to exchange-rate unification, the Electronic Foreign Exchange Management System (EFEMS), and the Nigerian FX Market Conduct Code, transparency has improved, arbitrage has been kicked to the curb, and the naira is trading within a much tighter range. The once-gaping gulf between official and parallel markets – which ballooned past 60% at its worst – has now shrunk to less than 2%. Not bad.

Unsurprisingly, investors have noticed. Capital inflows hit $20.98 billion in the first ten months of 2025 alone; a 70% jump compared to all of 2024. Confidence, it seems, is quietly staging a comeback.

Nigeria’s external buffers are also looking healthier. Foreign reserves have climbed to $46.7 billion, the highest level in nearly seven years, covering over 10 months of imports. Crucially, this isn’t debt-fuelled muscle-flexing. Cardoso stressed that reserves are being rebuilt ‘organically’,  through better FX liquidity, rising non-oil exports, and stronger diaspora remittances.

The banking sector? Still standing. The ongoing recapitalisation exercise is firmly on track, with 27 banks already raising capital and 16 comfortably meeting or exceeding the new thresholds ahead of the March 31, 2026 deadline. Stress tests suggest the system remains fundamentally sound. Regulators have also been busy tightening oversight, from ATMs and POS operators to branch closures and cash distribution. Basically, the era of ‘anything goes’ is ending.

Another big win was Nigeria’s exit from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list. You will recall that FATF leads global action to tackle money laundering, terrorist and proliferation financing. Cardoso reminded the audience that countries stuck on that list typically lose up to 7.6% of capital inflows in just one year. Nigeria’s removal has already reduced compliance headaches for correspondent banks and boosted global confidence in the country’s financial system.

Meanwhile, Nigeria’s digital payments and fintech scene continues to sprint ahead. Over 12 million contactless cards are now in circulation, the regulatory sandbox has expanded to more than 40 innovators, and interoperability across payment platforms is deepening. The message from the CBN is clear: innovate boldly, but don’t break the system while you’re at it.

Global rating agencies are also warming up. Fitch upgraded Nigeria from B- to B with a stable outlook, Moody’s moved the country from Caa1 to B3, and S&P shifted its outlook from stable to positive, all nods to stronger reserves and better macroeconomic management.

Looking to 2026, the CBN’s to-do list includes tougher bank resilience, stronger inflation targeting, wider digital payments infrastructure, tighter fintech governance, better internal efficiency, and deeper local and global partnerships. In short: less drama, more discipline.

Cardoso wrapped things up with a confident note, saying Nigeria is now more resilient to external shocks than at any point in recent history, thanks to a flexible exchange rate, rising non-oil exports, growing services trade, and healthier reserves.

“The foundation for a revitalised Nigeria has been laid,” he said. The journey isn’t over, but for the first time in a while, the road ahead looks surprisingly clear.